Post-Covid world; a common narrative

Post Covid 19 World


The year 2020 has been nothing short of nightmarish, so far. A crown-shaped microbe spread from China and now holds the whole wide world hostage. The frenzy unfolded in early March, with global super powers scrambling to close down borders, arrange medical equipment and ramp up medical facilities. The ensuing period has seen all economic activities come to a standstill, the unimpeded march of deaths and all-out efforts to invent a medical intervention to beat the coronavirus. Even as I write this, the maestro of Indian politics, Sh. N.D. Modi delivers his speech to the nation , hinting at an extension of the Lock-down... classily called Lock-down 4.0. However, amidst all the hullabaloo, several countries are indeed taking trepid measures towards an "exit", like a domestic cat trying to gauge the depth of water using its paws!! Statements from world leaders are indicating shift in policy flavour towards the famous step in human salvation, namely Acceptance!! They have come to realize that this is no passing trouble and there shall be no miracle from the heavens. Everyone is getting enlightened to the impending reality of a "Life with Corona", at least for the next 2 -3 years. 



Locked up at home, I have had the opportunity to closely follow the media narratives on the Covid crisis. And yes, I have mostly tried to stay away from the mainstream media on Television to save my sanity. They are not just in-the-face, but also follow a very predictable narrative, that is not my cup of tea. However, for the seeker, there is always something. I came across interviews, articles in online magazines and even enlightening posts on social media, that strove to explain or predict changes brought about by the crisis. The relative vulnerabilities of different industries, the companies that stand to gain, sudden splurge in consumption on OTT platforms, the rising anti-China narrative, migrant labor crisis, shining moment for e-commerce firms, Work-from-home initiatives by companies, door delivery of alcohol.... the last one being my personal favorite!! In this piece, I shall make an effort to explain my take on the issues that most intrigued me and those that seem to have far-reaching effects in future.

Authoritarianism..... bred in Crisis

The need for a hero or a leader is perhaps never as powerful as during times of crisis. Our mythology speaks grandly of  divine incarnations or avatars, who have taken birth in different times of human existence, to deliver from suffering and sins. Great leaders (not necessarily from a popular angle) like Hitler, Churchill, Gandhi, Mandela, etc. have all but two things in common....

1.  they all personified the promise of a better tomorrow for the masses.
2. their rise coincides with a deepening socio-economic crisis, be it in any form.

It is now well accepted that the Covid crisis is the greatest health crisis the world has faced since the Spanish Flu of 1918 and the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  However, the magnitude of this problem is perhaps much greater than what the above comparisons suggest. The world is far far more interconnected, in every way possible, and thus, every action has globally reverberating consequences. This makes this crisis even more acute. And this shall lead to emboldening of power-philic leaders, who were already on the ascent...thanks to right-winged populism.


Rise of authoritarianism in a post-Covid world
Source: worldatlas.com


We have come to know of elected leaders passing ordinances for indefinite vesting of powers in the supremo's hand, all in the name of handling the Covid crisis. The stress on effective compliance to lock-down guidelines, with instances of people being bullied for good reason or not, is in many ways similar to what has been happening in the Valley for so many years. Yes, the context is different, but the result on citizen life is similar. Such a prolonged phase, wherein the govt. dictates do's and don'ts, arranges for food and security, fights spread of disease and the average citizen pretty much listens and abides, can lead to a habitual leader-follower relation. The power distance in the Old world, emerging nations was only getting incrementally reduced till now. The current trend might lead to a reversal in all the work done, such that we truly regress back to a society where power is concentrated in the hands of a few.. and those few cannot be questioned.



In India, one can expect a slew of reforms and policy changes, intent fully pushed through via ordinances and all available democratic and pseudo-democratic means. Debates on many matters shall be ignored and the will-feel of the ruling faction shall reign. Some decisions might prove right, some might prove wrong... but in the end, one can be sure that the average citizen will be treated increasingly like an obedient, naive kid, who needs to be told what is good for him and what is bad. A 10-15 year period of subdued vox populi and radical rule can be envisaged, post which the society shall again get re-enlightened to the beauty of democracy.

Self - reliance and Nationalism

Nationalism has been increasingly an integral part of government's core policy across the world. The collective anger against immigration, imbalances in foreign trade accounts and terrorist threats.... Nations are closing borders, refusing refugees and restricting labor immigration. The portrayal of China as the culprit in the current fiasco has prompted many organizations to build alternative manufacturing capabilities... Western nations have demanded shifting back production to home shores. Everyone wants to keep her nation safe and wants but exclusive prosperity. India hopes to cajol and seduce powerful industries into setting up hubs in India, an allegedly better destination than China (really !!)

Another agenda on the rounds is that of Self reliance. Along with it comes the appeal to buys locally produced stuff. Now, as much as this Patanjali-style appeal seems patriotic, let us take heed of 2 things:

1. 70+ years of proven inability in adequately developing industrial sector 


In b-school discussions, we often wondered that despite all this progress we do not have a single globally successful desi brand.  For ages, we have exported elementary resources like iron ore and bought processed products at higher prices. Industry insiders and sellers know how deeply entrenched China is in the commodities market. In recent times, the charismatic leader's call to #MakeinIndia has also not brought much reason to cheer for the thinking individual. Thus, I am left to sorrily ponder over the idea of my country suddenly aiming for 'domestic manufacturing and consumption'..... If only a firy oration and a loud social media campaign could translate into something like a multi-billion dollar technology company like a Apple or a Samsung!! I would happily have named the company as Kela aka Banana, taking the fruity way for naming. 


2. Reason behind off-shoring and outsourcing, export and import


An US firm decides to get its backend Operations outsourced to India. Why?

A clueless US President asks India to send Hydrochloroquine, by the millions. Why? An agri-trader in Mumbai comments on the great quality of onions from Pakistan? How did he know?

Its called trade silly!! And to go more elementary, you sell what you have and buy what you want to have. Since, inequality is a fundamental characteristic of all natural creations, every geography is blessed with different resource pools. Trade results in a sharing of the fruits from those resources...because otherwise it would not be possible/viable to get hold of them all. The need to get things done, efficiently, and ensure better availability of things resulted in collaboration, globalization leading to the world we have today.


The call for Self-reliance (and blah blah..khadi, desi, #patanjalilove, etc.) should be framed more like .."and from now on , thou shalt have all fruits and food, goods and garbage in your own backyard". It is the dream of being God like..."sab hai apun k paas".

In a more unabashed fashion, it is like denying to allow electric vehicles in India, because.. one, you don't have raw material requires for production of batteries, two, you don't have local technology to produce the former. The kind of backlash India shall face if it actually goes this way (via high import tariffs, high customs duties, quantity limits), from the international community is unimaginable. I can only feel for the average consumer who will have to forfeit his dream of buying the next iphone, because Self reliance requires you to buy only Micromax!!!



Why does make in India have to mean deliberately promoting desi brands?

Socially distanced Society and a masked existence

It has now been globally iterated that the Corona virus is here to stay. Experts have said that it might be 1-2 years before which the world develops some sort of herd immunity or the virus mutates enough to lose its virulence/ contagiousness. Yet still, some are of the opinion that it might never go away like the HIV virus, a vaccine for the later being still a subject of research. A Swedish epidemiologist opined that the virus WILL run its course, infecting all of humanity, thus suggesting that lockdowns will only delay the inevitable and not change the end result.

The fight against the once dreaded HIV virus was fought by raising mass awareness about the need for safe sex (mainly). A sex contraceptive called the condom was mass marketed across the world. In India, film-stars endorsed on small screen, cricketers wore "Fight HIV" labels to field and organizations held awareness events for employees and societies. With such sustained effort over decades,the spread of HIV is now truly contained. 

Change the context to present.


Source: healthfinancenews

We have mass advisories on maintaining social distance. People are being coaxed and forced to remain indoors and avoid all crowded places. Desperate and needy visitors to hospitals or other institutions are being made to sanitize their hands multiple times. Lackadaisical drivers, without masks, are being denied gas fueling stations. One must wonder whether these measures are here to stay, how would they change our lives such that they persist even after the virus is beaten?

Liquor factories have taken to manufacturing sanitizers, and idle households have started manually sewing masks. Soon, the market will be flooded with masks and face shields, of various shapes and designs. How they might differentiate on actual functionality needs to be seen, though. For instance, masks bring immense inconvenience to users with glasses; with every exhalation, moisture clouds the glasses. Some enterprising firm would soon develop a design that addresses this issue.

A KEN article explores how there has been a dramatic change in the beauty care product market. The days of luscious, well-defined and crimson red Angelina Jolie lips are lost!! With masks hiding half the face, women are turning away from lipsticks. Guess who's winning....products that amplify the eyes!!! This is surely a shift in a consumer need that shall decisively define the beauty care industry. I personally, find the MASK quite an intimidating accessory. In my society, we were always used to being socially amiable and indulgent, with individualism rising only in recent times. But the mask seems to hide half the identity! A shopkeeper will never know his customers definitively, eliminating chances of true acquaintance. A new occupant in a flat will not get to know his neighbors, the mask creating an additional barrier in the socializing process. Thus, the MASK, is going to add strength to India's shift towards individualism and a more formal society, where your identity is diluted yet sacrosanct.... Innocuous chit chats will diminish... social networks shall lose denseness in physicality.

Social Distancing in India
Source: india.com

The need to maintain social distance might have far reaching consequences, of second and third order. think of schools and colleges. the sudden demand to shift classes online has taken most institutions by surprise. Some are managing via Zoom calls and Whatsapp groups, while some have deferred the program. Resourceful ones would already be working to quickly put in place a systematic program for extensive online delivery of program. In days to come, the latter shall gain momentum, the magnitude being dictated by the resilience of the Corona virus. the longer it stays, the more society shall press for the same. Now, the effectiveness of the online classes, when applied blanket-style in schools and colleges, is debatable. but, many other facets of education may change. With the classroom now spread across the internet, the teacher's accountability will increase manifold, as her classes might be scrutinized by probing parents. Online submissions of assignment shall necessitate increased use of plagiarism-detection software like Turnitin. Yet among many such changes that may precipitate, I feel the most impactful one would be "loss of the school experience". The interactions that happen in classroom amidst peers, the brawls on the playing fields, the everlasting friendships.... All these contribute to development of the child, he gets to learn his society and its ways. The mental development of the child shall be affected, and much thought needs to be put in to study the effects and propose actions.

Another possibility or rather proposition, that comes to my mind is staggered industry timings. Let me explain. Given India's huge population and severely burdened public assets like rail, road, etc., maintaining social distancing through all economic activity shall be a Herculean task. We all know the kind of crowds in Mumbai locals!!! What if one third of the establishments/ industries that employed these people changed their operation timings? Consumer facing activities like retail shall continue in normal hours. But back end/ upstream activities might be shifted to night hours. IT services, which employs millions, might shift all operations to night hours. There are hundreds and thousands of small and big factories that might be advised to do the same. This would require an amendment to Factories Act, which should not be a big task. More importantly, the governments shall be needed to ensure 24/7 availability of essential services like rail/road transport and cognizance of emergency services like police, fire-fighting, etc. This way not only will we, as a society, be better able to maintain social distances, but our severely burdened assets shall be relieved due to more uniform usage.

Dispersed Consumption

Online delivery of goods and services is already very much a reality. The current crisis shall definitively prove a game changer in the above context. Weekends shall not see frolicking crowds at Connaught place or Park street restaurants and pubs, entertainment parks and programs shall see reduced audiences. Long queues in front of banks and before mega-stores running discount sales shall no longer be the norm. Consumers will start getting door delivery of all sorts of services and goods, via myriad apps. 

There will be changes in business models for businesses with heavy physical presence. Some shall adopt and some shall perish. But overall, i dare to proclaim that things will be done more efficiently. Not every other guy will venture out every other day to buy this or that. delivery milk runs with stipulated timings and routes shall be commonplace. Mass saving of time, money, fuel shall be achieved. Digitization and formalization of the complete supply chain across the spectrum of goods and services shall also enable organizations and governments to implement directives and monitor operations. And, linking back to the point on overburdened assets, less people will be out on the streets, reducing the gross pressure on public resources and the environment.

The beauty and glamour of aesthetically or lavishly constructed institutions shall no more be for the real eye. The quality of the web-page and the capability of the product manager shall critically define the success of a business. Given that the internet abounds in business webpages that are hardly mobile-optimized (many are just too shabby, short on content), one can foresee upswing in related  improvement activities.

Migrant Labor Crisis in India

As all activities came to a null with imposition of arguably the world's hardest lockdown, millions of migrant laborers in various urban centers were suddenly rendered useless. Their sources of daily income were shut dry. Seizure of all public and private transport meant that they were also trapped wherever they were. As the lockdown kept getting extended, meager savings they had on them also got exhausted. It must be acknowledged that all authorities, state central and local, as well as not-for-profit organizations tried multiple means to ensure that these men and women got some food for sustenance. But we are speaking of 50+ days of lockdown, with no end in sight and millions of impoverished people, dispersed across cities. Even with recent efforts at 100% financial inclusion, it can be said that many among the former are still outside the banking net. They have beneficiary accounts, but many are for their families at home. In the state's grand welfare net, these people are like small plankton's of the ocean that pass through the pores of the net, staying alive and omni-present yet unaccounted for. They live in unhygienic shacks with fellow laborers, far from their families. Thus, with no relief in sight, the jobless and resource less migrant labor has now decided to walk his way to his home.

Migrant Labor Crisis
Source: m.economic.times

News Channels are reporting with appropriate emotion on how thousands of migrant laborers have taken to the desolate highways, braving the hard, cruel summer sun, aiming to walk 500-800 miles. Families...women...kids...hardly any luggage...dry parched rice for nutrition on the journey....tattered chappals...a section of Indian humanity on the roads!! This is a painful reversal of the phenomenon of urban migration, that has happened over decades. Large family sizes, sub-optimal land holding size and dearth of meaningful employment in villages led generations of young people to leave the comfort of their homes and venture into big, callous cities, with hopes of some work and income, albeit at the cost of comfort and self-respect. And now, a reversal is happening. It remains to be seen how this is going to affect industries and urban hubs, as things return to normal. The resolve of the migrant labor is perhaps soddened, his conscience sick from the apathy he faced in cities. He might be more reluctant to return. The change might not be irreversible, but in short term, cities are going to face severe crisis in terms of household helpers, construction workers, cleaning staff, etc. Also, it must be kept in mind that with the economic downturn in progress, the rural guy will find it less attractive to return to lackluster cities and towns. The whole system might choke in that case. The government would then need to incentivise these people by various means, for example, promise of better wages, ensuring widespread formalization of jobs involving these men, extending social security, etc. In this connection, I find the attempt by various authorities to abolish (well, almost) and amend labor laws like minimum wage, working hours redefinition, etc. absolutely inexplicable. This is only going to discourage  the guy from returning to the city; he would be better off working part time on agricultural land than working 12-hour shifts in factories with abysmal working conditions.

Political speakers, economists, etc. are all very vocal about the plight of migrant worker and are all demanding the best treatment for the latter. The collective conscience of the corona-affected society wants justice and facilities for them. Yet, the truth is that most of us (and that includes our policy makers, bureaucrats) were living in blissful ignorance of this reality of Migrant Labor. Only if our able leaders and respected policy makers would have cared enough for them during better times!!! My only fear is that as things start normalizing and people start resuming work... news channels shall find more attractive things to cover...critics shall find newer topics to debate on... The plight of the migrant labor shall again be lost like damped vibration... a receding ripple in our fickle memories. 

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All the above are reproductions of my opinions formed from information available in public domain. Much of the article might reek of negativity, but the reader is requested to pardon me.... the current conditions have surely affected my narration. Then again, none of what I have written might actually materialize. I hope that the economy recovers soon... Indian brands rise and rule.... and most of all.. the doomed virus becomes extinct!!! 

Happy reading!!












Comments

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